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    Quote of the Day

    "You should be more conscious when you are sleeping"

    -Isabella Hatkoff  (June 2010) on the breaking a pinky promise by her dad who was a sleeping

     

    "You can't solve a problem with the same kind of thinking that created it."
    -Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955)

    "Give a dog a fish, feed him for a day.  Teach a dog to fish, feed him for a lifetime."

    - Walter the Farting Dog

    "Wouldn't it make more sense to read the legislation before approve you it? It's like asking the architect to design the house after it is already built."

    -Paris Hilton

     



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    Thursday
    Mar052009

    Jon Stewart Takes on Cramer, Santelli, Money Honey and CNBC

    Stewart:  How Do You Make a Small Fortune from Watching CNBC?  Start Off with A Large One

    Dressing Down Cramer: To Make Point, Relentless Stewart Just Goes to the Videotruth

    In a very excellent compilation of "ridiculous" recommendations by CNBC, Jon Stewart steam rolls through the tulips.  Predictions, pontifications, postulations and recommendations  all gone awry.  The best way to financial ruin is to listen to "sudden advice often times unexpected" (my favorite quote from Charles Kindleberger's --no relation to Amazon's hot new Kindle 2-- "Manias, Panics and Crashes"). The problem is listening to Cramer & Co you are not only expecting but asking for "sudden advice".  The truth can be so incrimination particular when it is fully recorded.  Doesn't stop me from watching religiously.

     

     

    Wednesday
    Mar042009

    The Check is in the Mail...Has Finally Arrived

    Put a Tiger in Your Tank!

     If Team Obama's non-plan to rescue the banking system fails we are all in for an epic struggle.  The two year recovery becomes the lost decade where we are in for an epic financial struggle-- perhaps the mother of all struggles.    Want to know just what an epic struggle really is?  Check out this gritty. grainy "Python  versus Tiger" video that have been must be the original inspiration for the now ubiquitous "Battle at Kruger" that now  has over 42 million views on youtube .  If you can't make it through  "Python versus Tiger" video then I hope you are truly religious and know how to pray while the the bottom fishers and grave dancers take advantage of a different kind of prey.

    Big Warning--This is an unbelievably intense video.  If you can't take intense drama take a valium before watching:

     

    Here's the less cinematic knock-off Battle at Kruger:

     

     

    In a world  full of doom and gloom it takes a lot to change market sentiment.  But a pleasant crack in the fissures and adhesions of the econolypse that are gripping the world's capital markets took place today.  Trying to fix the global economy that has run on a super-uber-abundant supply of loose and  silly if not downright idiotic credit is like trying to keep all the cars in the world on the road and freely running if you shut down all of the world's gas stations all at the same time.  Let's face it boys.  We are running on vapors. 

    But just today a devoted contributors reports  a very pleasant surprise that arrived in the mail.  His  five year adjustable rate mortgage  whose rate was  set back in early 2004 at 4.875% just rolled over at ....3.25%.  Okay, so it's only for one year.  The index was set at 2.75% over one year treasuries that clocked in at a blistering .54% (that's right... basically 1/2% )! A little rounding to the bank's favor and there you have it.  A drop of almost 17% in the  monthly debt service. This contributor's  home equity line was now now priced at the prime rate of 3%.  You do the math.  While the new adminstration remains politically popular their policies are not... at least not yet. 

    It takes a while for the rat to pass through the snake (or in this case the tiger through the python).  Mortgage applications, appraisals (an archaic term) take time to work their way through the financial system.

     When all those borrowers with  6% and 7% coupon mortgages start to roll and refinance (if the banks ever start lending in earnest) real dough will start appearing in the wallets of terrorized Americans who  sufferring from "inconfidence" a combination of total loss of control of the bowel and bladder functions  coupled with acute fear of just about everything.  Not a particularly robust set of dynamics for a bull market.

     But there is a cautionary tale of the perils the Great Refinancing.  All those fancy sausage-sliced securities with mind boggling acronyms:  CDSs. CDOs, CMOs, MBS, CMBS, Ginnies, Fannies, Freddie's, Sallie's. When the refinancing hits, an investor in these securities  who had a relative high rate of return is now stuck with a much lower rate of return for the same risk/reward profile.  One borrower's gain is another lender's loss.  Sort of sounds like a zero sum game.  So when all those endowments, pension funds find they can't meet their actuarial commitments we begin to replace one crisis with another.

     

     

    Remembering Howie Rubin (May 1987)

    Beware the IO's  of May... the PO's become PU's

     

    A Blast from the Past:  So there  was a specific incident--  The Howie Rubin Double Down Memorial Trade-- back in 1987-- over 20 years ago that resulted from a rapid change in interest rates.  Back then if a trader lost (or stole)  $250 million it was big news.  Now-- unless you are talking in the tens of billions-- a good trade gone bad barely hits the radar screen.  So here's a blast from the past involving then-mortgage exotica  known as IOs (interest only)  and POs (principal only) securities.  A very clever form of slicing and dicing, ripping and stripping ginnie mae bonds into "interest only" securities and "principal only" securities. 

     

    As young and highly regarded Merrill Lynch mortgage trader Howie Rubin found himself a little behind the 8-ball when rates unexpected "sky rocketed" so the interest only securities that he had sold rose quickly in value and the highly rate-volatile principal only that he held on to dropped precipitiously in value. So he did what any respectable gunslinger playing with other people's money would do: he doubled down and lost.  When the dust settled Merrill Lynch was out of 250 million smokes, Howie was out of job and the markets were rattled to the core.  Not to worry, Howie landed on his feet at guess where?  Bear Stearns.  He learned his lesson and went on to make gobs of money.  Today IOs and POs are quaint relics and we now deal with something more insidious: the CDS market whose notional principal stands at somewhere between $30 trillionand $62 trillion depending on who you ask. Just don't ask AIG who wouldn't have clue. 

    AIG: This bottomless pit that has finally "frustrated" Ben Bernanke and made him mad. We are headed rapidly toward the $200 billion bailout with no end in sight, no analysis in mind and no backbone in place to say-- enough is enough:  All naked (unhedged) credit default swaps other than for verifiable hedging purposes are hereby declared null and void as against public policy.  Our friends at J.P. Morgan wouldn't be too happy since they just reported a $5 billion profit from trading credit default swaps-- seems they're  the only credit worthy counter party left on the planet. At least fo the time being.

     

    So the lesson is if we live long enough and all those mortgage bills are reduced by 15-20% and the investors on the other side of the trade don't go belly up, we just might work our way out of this mess.  But if we don't have any banks who will lend and borrowers who will borrow this is  going to be really long and "ucking fugly".   So, even if you re-open all the gas stations in the world, fill up the gas tanks of all the cars, its going to be very hard to get from A to B is everyone in the world is afraid to get back on the road again and drive.  We need to put the  tiger back in everybody's tank before they get strangled by the python!

     

    Caveat Emperor

     

    Sticky

     

         

    Monday, May. 11, 1987

    Bond Bombshell

     

    It started as a mistake, by all signs an honest one, but it grew into a Wall Street disaster. A 36-year-old senior bond trader at Merrill Lynch apparently lost his cool last month when rising interest rates started rapidly eroding the value of his $900 million portfolio. Instead of liquidating the securities and taking the loss, as most of his colleagues on Wall Street were doing, the Merrill Lynch trader seemingly gambled on a go-for-broke strategy. Without his employer's permission, he plunged in deeper, buying up $800 million more of the securities in the hope that an interest-rate turnaround would bring enough profits to bail out all his losses. His wager failed spectacularly. When Merrill Lynch announced the episode last week, the firm estimated its losses at $250 million, possibly the largest single trading deficit in Wall Street history.

    The financial community was stunned at not only the immensity of the loss but also the identity of the trader: Howard Rubin, the head of Merrill Lynch's trading desk for mortgage-backed securities. Rubin, who has been fired but not charged with any criminal wrongdoing, was a respected trader and is a Harvard Business School graduate. Said Stephen Joseph, a senior trader at Drexel Burnham Lambert: "It's really strange. He has a great reputation."

    But Rubin was apparently dealing in one of the tricky, relatively untested new types of securities. The bonds that tripped up Merrill Lynch are interest-only/principal-only securities, known as IOPOs. Investment houses create them by buying mortgage-backed bonds -- typically those issued by the Government National Mortgage Association, or Ginnie Mae -- and then splitting the securities into two parts, one that pays interest and another whose price rises or falls with the resale value of the bond. Rubin was selling the interest-paying bonds and hanging on to the principal securities, which lost value rapidly as interest rates rose.

    The incident prompted questions about Merrill Lynch's internal supervision. The firm claimed it had put a closer watch on Rubin at least a year earlier, after assessing him as talented but riskprone. Last week the company began an in-house probe and fired a second trader, who had allegedly failed to disclose investments and lost $10 million. Meanwhile, colleagues began looking for hints in Rubin's background about why he took such a plunge. According to one account, the trader had been a devoted blackjack player before his business-school days.

     

    Sunday
    Mar012009

    The Humpty Dumpty Omelette Dilemma: Part 2

    Does Department of Treasury Need a Theme Song?


    McCartney's "Yesterday" Dream Was Just "Scrambled Eggs"


    Only Melodies Need Apply (Quick, Just Use Green$ Eggs and Ham for the Damn Lyrics)


    Stickman to Geitner: Dream Harder
    humpty_dumpty[1].jpg

    Ah! if we could all just dream up solutions for the econolypse in our sleep. Some of ...well.. at least one of the world's greatest melodies came to Beatle Paul in a dream. Considered the most "covered" song in history with over 3,000 recorded versions, it has been estimated that the song "Yesterday" was performed over 7 million times in the 20th century alone.

    Here are the music and lyrics for one of everyone's favorite and most meleancholy Beatletune's ever (even though it was written and performed solo by PM):

    Like Joseph's amazing technicolor dream, this musically-sophisticated melody appeared to the Big Mac in a dream when he was dating British tart, Jane Asher. Worried he had plagiarized the melody, Paul agonized and focused on the money- that is the melody. All great musicians know its really the melody that counts. As a lyrical place holder he used the following working lyrics for "Yesterday" that he (and John Lennon) referred to as "Scrambled Eggs":

    Paul McCartney's working lyrics for "Yesterday":

    Scrambled eggs
    Have an omelette with some Muenster cheese
    Put your dishes in the wash bin please
    So I can clean the scrambled eggs

    Join me do
    There's a lot of eggs for me and you
    I've got ham and cheese and bacon too
    So go get two and join me do

    Fried or sunny side
    Just aren't right
    The mix-bowl begs
    Quick, go get a pan, and we'll scramble up some eggs, eggs, eggs, eggs

    Scrambled eggs
    Good for breakfast, dinner time or brunch
    Don't buy six or twelve, buy a bunch
    And we'll have a lunch on scrambled eggs

    "The song was around for months and months before we finally completed it," John Lennon remembered. "We made up our minds that only a one-word title would suit; we just couldn't find the right one. Then one morning Paul woke up and the song and the title were both there, completed. I was sorry in a way, we'd had so many laughs about it."

    Sooooo what's all this got to do withthe econolypse? It seems our crackerjack bailout team has not had any remotely workable  solutions that hold the water of the credibility that is quickly draining out of the tub. So in the meanwhile maybe we need to turn to our favorite cover stories  Humpty Dumpty or Dr. Seuss. Their stories make more sense than yours.  For $8 trilliion couldn't  you guys come up with one decent melody or even mediocre set of lyrics.  We don't need the Beatles but wouldn't it be nice if instead of change you can believe in,  we could just turn back the financial clock to  "Yesterday"!!!  Until then ... dream on.  We got alot eggs to unscramble!

     

    For all you aspiring rockstars out there, here is  the first verse of lyrics as a song starter-- feel free to add more lyrics- verse, chorus bridge--- and come up with your own melody-- maybe we can get a record deal from the now defunct music industry that we know missed the paradigm shift to itunes, guitar hero and rock band.  Dinosaurs beware.

     

    Here is the first verse:

    We're singin' the wrong song

    We want want you to sing along

    We're singin' it out of key

    Can't find a melody

    Knock yourselves out

    Thanks Stickgirl!

    Saturday
    Feb282009

    A New Day for Politicos: Invasion of the Techno-Tweets

    So What If Joe Biden Doesn't Know His Ass from His URL? Just Ask CNN'S Jeanne Moos

    eep Confuses  Recovery Website Address (www.recovery.gov) with Tommy Tutone Rock Classic "867-5309"?

     

     

    www.bidenblooper.com (only kidding) 

     

    Some people are better at remembering numbers than names.  While you might not remember the name of the  band (Tommy Tutone) or forget the girl's name in the song (Jenny) who could ever forget the telephone number (867-5309) immortalized on the bathroom wall in the bar. Joe must be a real 80's rock afficianado.

     

    Remember the lyrics:

    Jenny, Jenny who can I turn to
    You give me something I can hold onto
    I know you think I'm like the others before
    Who saw your name and number on the wall

    Jenny, I got your number,
    I need to make you mine.
    Jenny, don't change your number,
    8-6-7-5-3-0-9 (8-6-7-5-3-0-9)
    8-6-7-5-3-0-9 (8-6-7-5-3-0-9)

    Jenny, Jenny, you're the girl for me.
    You don't know me but you make me so happy.
    I tried to call you before but I lost my nerve.
    I tried my imagination, but I was disturbed.

     

     

    Here's a rare clip form a live performance (1983) of the rock classic:

     

    Jeanne Moos from CNN let's nothing go by.  From the technically challenged troglodytic dinosaurs to the new techno-tweets who run around Congress twittering and tweeting desperate to look cool in front of their consistuents and get attention. Ever since Scarlet Johanssen heated up the demand for hand held devices and other parts of the anatomy, the formal dress code for all members of congress includes a blackberry (iphones are too elitist.). Rumor has it only 9 of those blackberry's are actually activated.

    But it does seem Joe Biden is clueless as to  what a website address is.  A number? A number!  Websites don't have numbers Joe. Maybe he is confusing the compuserve numeric email addresses from the jurrasic age. If you were such an earlier adopter that you had a compuserve  email address that was numeric then you are totally cool and retro.  Joe?  Doubt it.  A website has a URL (pronounced U-R-L) that stands for Uniform Resource Locator. Learn it. Know it.  btw the government website you were thinking of is www.recovery.gov

     

    Speaking of someone in need of a recovery. Just ask Bobby Jindal. Bloopers and limp performances can end a career.  The formerly up-and-coming Louisiana Gov hit a brick wall and fell flat on his face as he went for the gold in the GOP response to President Obama's Non-State of the Union Address earlier this week.  Bobby.  Trust me.  No one has ever pulled off a successful rebuttal of post-Presidential address with 65 standing ovations.  The Obaminator's  got the entire Congress and 85 million viewers hanging on his every word.  He's signing copies of his address walking out of the most hallowed chamber on the planet for God sake .  He makes Bono look like a deer in the headlights (as opposed to Joachim Phoenix who is a deer in the headlights or seriously needs to  changes his meds or stop taking what ever he is taking altogether.)

     

     

    So Bobby. Here's a little advice. Get a commuications coach and work on your speaking. Never accept a slot after Barack Obama again. Take the one after Joachim Phoenix.

     

    Thursday
    Feb262009

    Treasury's Humpty Dumpty Omelette Dilemma: Green Egg$ and Ham (and Cheese and Homefries)

    Humpty Dumpty Had a Great Fall!

    Mr. Dumpty Pre- Lehman Collapse


    How Do You Unscramble an Omelette?


    Want to know why this credit crunch may be intractible and last for a decade? Here's how to best understand the arcane world of CDO's, credit default swaps and structured finance in general. When markets are moving along at normal earthly speeds (let's say up to  500 mph- the speed of jet) we can think in terms of the laws of Newtonian physics. But when markets seize up things instantaneously start  to  fall apart as the loss of confidence in market mechanisms moves at roughly the the speed of light. Welcome to "Einstein-ville" a world of quantum physics. When markets collapse we move from a Newtonian paradigm to a quantum realm where really strange things start to happen: rulers shrink, time becomes different for different observers, black holes and worms appear in the universe.  Matter is both a wave and a particle at the same time. The act of observation changes the outcome. (George Soros's "Quantum Fund" and his Theory of Reflexivity are no coincidence).  Check out this 5 minute video from Dr. Quantum.  Then ask yourself, do we really want a financial system predicated on rocket scientists running models?

     


    In the Newtonian world, otherwise complex yet intellectually digestable securities  encounter a bit of flatulence here and there. Passing wind generally relieves the pressure: a predictable and sustainable number of defaults, restructurings, bankruptcies, write-offs and the like. When markets collapse however things become come undone. Isaac Newton is thoroughly discredited and we go into global geothermal nuclear finance mode. Fas 157 becomes the mother of black holes.  The weight of gravity, time and space folding upon each other.  There is not enough capital in the system to clear the market without wiping out civilization. The self-fulfilling prophecy becomes the group-fulfilled immolation.  Imagine playing musical chairs with no seats!  Capital is a global proxy for market confidence. When market confidence fails, governmental response is massive liquidity injections which either quickly restore confidence or if unsuccessful begin to completely undermine it. 
     
    So here's an instructive visualization: Wall Street created a several trillion dollar ham and cheese omelette and was paid billions in profits. Treasury's job is to put the eggs back into the shell, the ham back onto the pig and the cheese back into the cow. Not to mention putting the homefries back into the potato skins and onions. Noooo problem!

     

    Ham and Cheese Omelette with Homefries

    If all this sounds confusing welcome to the world of structured finance. Want to know why we are in such a pickle in the first place? Wall Street was a game of IQ arbitrage where complex cash flow models can only be understood by people who can decipher Gaussian cupola multivariant analysis in their sleep.
    Hmmmmm. So what if only a handful of  members of congress understand structured finance? Traffickers in tragedy will reap hundreds of billions of dollars in profits as the DOT tries desperately to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. All those sliced and diced securities-- 64,000 of which were originally rated "AAA" by our wonderful rating agencies who only deemed 12 U.S. companies worthy of the same "AAA" rating. Nice work boys!

     

    Tuesday
    Feb242009

    Geitner Aggregator Bank: Offer U.S. Tax Payers Co-investment Rights

     

    Below-Market Rate Loans to Giant Hedge Funds to Create Embedded Leveraged Option Value Thereby Increasing Volatility?

    What If Treasury Lets Little Guys Play with the Big Boys?

    Fairness Doctrine of "put up or shut up":  Let All U.S. Tax Payers Co-invest on Same Terms and Conditions

    With trillions of dollars sitting on the sideline socked away in matresses and zero %  yielding  short term treasuries waiting for an investment thesis to emerge here's an idea:  If the Treasury is going to give away the shop to induce private capital into the market why not let all Tax Payers play on the same terms and conditions?

    As the Treasury Boys mull their next brainchild of the aggregator/bad  bank financing plan that will reportedly include seller financing from DOT at Libor +125 bp to induce hedge funds to buy toxic asset-backed securities, there is an embedded cautionary tale.  Most sophisticated investors know that in any plan offering  seller financing that requires  a small percentage as down payment coupled with non-recourse below-market rate financing  as an  inducement, the investor is simply in effect buying  a leveraged put option from the Treasury or should I say the U.S. Tax Payer. Well, at first blush the proposal to get a 50% down payment  from hedge funds buying the nearly unlimited highly  and not-so-highly rated toxicity sounds pretty good. Don't jump to any conclusions so quickly.  It's all in the structure and such a plan must be evaluated in its full context. The devil's in the details. Its all about the entire stack of capital not just the AAA crapola that will need to be re-liquify the credit markets.

    Let's assume the hypothetical market rate of financing is Libor +900 bp. (Hypothetical, theoretical-- doesn't matter since there is no market rate financing available.) There is an implied  subsidy of 775 bp being offerred by Treasury for the full term of the purchased securities. Many toxic securiies are still performing with substantial cash flow (at least so far)  well in excess of the offered subsidized financing.  Hence if one were to assume an average maturity of 10 years the present value of the implied subsidy would    be roughly 50% of the purchase price or the amount of cash Treasury is seeking as the down payment. In other words, if the toxic assets' cash flow persists (a big if)  and the assets perform for 10 years the investors will get their money back.  Said differently: it all depends on how the financing is structured. 

    If excess cash flow from the securities' debt service payments are  allowed to "escape the system" also known as the "cash flow bleed" or waterfall provisions  and  be returned to investors rather than repaying the below market debt, it is a wildly different proposition than excess cash flow being used first to pay down the debt.  Secondly if the pools of assets are not cross-collarealized, the investor is cherry picking the profitable securities and putting back the dogs.  So we have a confluence of below-market rate financing, unclear waterfall provisions, indeterminate subordination levels and unanswered cross-collateralization  structure. 

     

    So Treasury will either get blamed for selling to cheap or look pretty stupid if $1 trillion of securities come flying back in their face.  In George Soros terminology  there is  a fearful asymmetry with a bias against the U.S. Tax Payer being on the wrong side of the bet.

    So what's a girl...or boy... to do?  Here's the big political idea... a fairness leveler.  Maybe any deal done by the Treasury with the Big Boys should include a stream-lined SEC-free co-investment right to any U.S. Tax Payer who can co-invest side by side in denominations as small as $500 without a promote structure or fee skim. Hey remember how much money Obama raised on the internet?  That way everybody gets to play along on a heads up basis so no one should complain.  Not likely there will be many takers but like any rights offerring it's put up or shut up.  Fairness prevails since everyone had a right to invest on the same terms and conditions. When John Paulson (not Hank) invests $50 billion and makes $200 billion no one can "how come he got such a good deal?".  They could've paid to play.  Maybe as part of the $50,000 per person stimulus $5,000 should be allocated so anyone can  purchase toxic securities along with the best and brightest who will undoubtedly make new fortunes. Hey-- it's just an idea.

     By the way, Treasury needs a head of marketing.  Their acronyms...TARP, TALF, TATL are sooooo bad.  Come on a little creativity please.

     

     

     

     



     
    Geithner Bad Bank Alternative May Rely on Loans to Hedge Funds

    By James Sterngold

    Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s financial-rescue plan may be doomed if he doesn’t offer low-cost loans to hedge funds and other investors to help them buy toxic assets weighing down bank balance sheets.

    Creating a so-called bad bank or aggregator bank that would use federal funds to acquire and warehouse the assets, as some have proposed, would be costly for taxpayers and require too much government interference, say two experts on distressed securities who have pitched an alternative plan to officials.

    John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York, and Matt Chasin, chief operating officer of Sorin Capital Management LLC, a Stamford, Connecticut-based hedge fund that manages about $1 billion, say the Treasury Department should provide loans at commercial rates to investors for up to 50 percent of the purchase price of securities. The financing would be for as long as the maturities of the assets being acquired.

    “One of the problems the banks have been facing is that the markets have forced artificially low prices on these assets because there’s not enough financing available for buyers,” said Ryding, 51, a former Federal Reserve economist who advises hedge funds. “There’s a lot of capital looking for distressed assets, if hedge funds can get good financing.”

    Geithner sketched out a rescue plan on Feb. 10 that was short on specifics. It called for a “public-private financing component,” with up to $1 trillion, that would enable financial institutions “to cleanse their balance sheets of what are often referred to as ‘legacy’ assets.” He said it “could involve putting public or private capital side-by-side and using public financing to leverage private capital.”

    Aggregator Bank

    Treasury officials said in background briefings that the plan would include some kind of government financing for private purchases of toxic assets, mostly mortgage-backed securities. Details are still being worked out, they said.

    Ryding, who was chief U.S. economist at Bear Stearns Cos. until last June, when JPMorgan Chase & Co. acquired the failed securities firm, first offered his plan in a Sept. 30 investor note. His proposal, which he says was presented to Treasury and Fed officials last fall, would limit taxpayer losses, allow the market to determine prices for troubled securities and restart trading in the assets.

    Realistic pricing set by the markets would unlock a freer flow of capital, Ryding and Chasin say, and avoid claims that the government is subsidizing either the banks, if prices are set too high, or the purchasers, if they are set too low.

    Spokesmen at the Fed and Treasury declined to comment on the plan.

    TATL, TALF

    “Lack of financing is a huge problem for the market,” said Laurie Goodman, a senior managing director at Austin, Texas-based Amherst Securities Group LP and a former head of mortgage research at UBS AG. “Extending the lending facility would raise the value of the mortgage assets, as the yield required by the marginal buyer, a hedge fund, would be lower.”

    Ryding and Chasin, who also worked at Bear Stearns, call their fund a Troubled Asset Term Lending facility, or TATL. It would be similar to one developed by Treasury last year, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF. That fund is scheduled to begin operating in early March and will provide as much as $1 trillion of financing for buyers of new securities backed by credit card, auto and small-business loans.

    The TATL fund would provide financing for so-called legacy assets, such as mortgage-backed and other collateralized securities that are declining in value and corroding bank balance sheets.

    ‘Increasing Liquidity’

    Under the plan, the government would charge rates similar to those for commercial loans before the credit crisis, about 125 basis points over the London Interbank Offered Rate. The financing would be for as long as the maturities of the securities acquired, and it would cover a maximum of half the purchase price.

    That would make it more likely, Ryding and Chasin say, that the government would recover the full value of the loan in the event of a default. In that case, the U.S. could seize the securities provided as collateral and would only lose money if the value of the asset fell more than 50 percent below the purchase price.

    “This is potentially a way of increasing liquidity, and if you could do that it may get you to a place where you can start making new securitizations,” which would allow increased lending, said Lee Cotton, an investor and former president of the New York-based Commercial Mortgage Securities Association.

    Price vs. Leverage

    Some hedge fund managers expressed skepticism. Eric Banks, a partner at New York-based Tolis Advisors LP, which invests in distressed securities, said the real problem is that many banks are unwilling to sell toxic assets at depressed prices and take additional writedowns.

    “Although government loans could improve secondary market participation and liquidity, legacy distressed assets owned by banks have been offered with seller financing included, yet only sporadic transactions occurred,” Banks said. “The primary cause of the ongoing stalemate seems to be price rather than leverage.”

    Ryding and Chasin agree that, even if the plan works, it will force banks to absorb additional losses, which might require more taxpayer money.

    “At the end of the day, this will not relieve banks of their capital-inadequacy problems,” said Chasin. “The government is probably going to have to fill that hole.”

    To contact the reporter on this story: James Sterngold in Los Angeles at jsterngold2@bloomberg.net

    Last Updated: February 23, 2009 00:01 EST

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