Geitner Aggregator Bank: Offer U.S. Tax Payers Co-investment Rights
Tuesday, February 24, 2009 at 01:29AM
Stickman ED
 

Below-Market Rate Loans to Giant Hedge Funds to Create Embedded Leveraged Option Value Thereby Increasing Volatility?

What If Treasury Lets Little Guys Play with the Big Boys?

Fairness Doctrine of "put up or shut up":  Let All U.S. Tax Payers Co-invest on Same Terms and Conditions

With trillions of dollars sitting on the sideline socked away in matresses and zero %  yielding  short term treasuries waiting for an investment thesis to emerge here's an idea:  If the Treasury is going to give away the shop to induce private capital into the market why not let all Tax Payers play on the same terms and conditions?

As the Treasury Boys mull their next brainchild of the aggregator/bad  bank financing plan that will reportedly include seller financing from DOT at Libor +125 bp to induce hedge funds to buy toxic asset-backed securities, there is an embedded cautionary tale.  Most sophisticated investors know that in any plan offering  seller financing that requires  a small percentage as down payment coupled with non-recourse below-market rate financing  as an  inducement, the investor is simply in effect buying  a leveraged put option from the Treasury or should I say the U.S. Tax Payer. Well, at first blush the proposal to get a 50% down payment  from hedge funds buying the nearly unlimited highly  and not-so-highly rated toxicity sounds pretty good. Don't jump to any conclusions so quickly.  It's all in the structure and such a plan must be evaluated in its full context. The devil's in the details. Its all about the entire stack of capital not just the AAA crapola that will need to be re-liquify the credit markets.

Let's assume the hypothetical market rate of financing is Libor +900 bp. (Hypothetical, theoretical-- doesn't matter since there is no market rate financing available.) There is an implied  subsidy of 775 bp being offerred by Treasury for the full term of the purchased securities. Many toxic securiies are still performing with substantial cash flow (at least so far)  well in excess of the offered subsidized financing.  Hence if one were to assume an average maturity of 10 years the present value of the implied subsidy would    be roughly 50% of the purchase price or the amount of cash Treasury is seeking as the down payment. In other words, if the toxic assets' cash flow persists (a big if)  and the assets perform for 10 years the investors will get their money back.  Said differently: it all depends on how the financing is structured. 

If excess cash flow from the securities' debt service payments are  allowed to "escape the system" also known as the "cash flow bleed" or waterfall provisions  and  be returned to investors rather than repaying the below market debt, it is a wildly different proposition than excess cash flow being used first to pay down the debt.  Secondly if the pools of assets are not cross-collarealized, the investor is cherry picking the profitable securities and putting back the dogs.  So we have a confluence of below-market rate financing, unclear waterfall provisions, indeterminate subordination levels and unanswered cross-collateralization  structure. 

 

So Treasury will either get blamed for selling to cheap or look pretty stupid if $1 trillion of securities come flying back in their face.  In George Soros terminology  there is  a fearful asymmetry with a bias against the U.S. Tax Payer being on the wrong side of the bet.

So what's a girl...or boy... to do?  Here's the big political idea... a fairness leveler.  Maybe any deal done by the Treasury with the Big Boys should include a stream-lined SEC-free co-investment right to any U.S. Tax Payer who can co-invest side by side in denominations as small as $500 without a promote structure or fee skim. Hey remember how much money Obama raised on the internet?  That way everybody gets to play along on a heads up basis so no one should complain.  Not likely there will be many takers but like any rights offerring it's put up or shut up.  Fairness prevails since everyone had a right to invest on the same terms and conditions. When John Paulson (not Hank) invests $50 billion and makes $200 billion no one can "how come he got such a good deal?".  They could've paid to play.  Maybe as part of the $50,000 per person stimulus $5,000 should be allocated so anyone can  purchase toxic securities along with the best and brightest who will undoubtedly make new fortunes. Hey-- it's just an idea.

 By the way, Treasury needs a head of marketing.  Their acronyms...TARP, TALF, TATL are sooooo bad.  Come on a little creativity please.

 

 

 

 



 
Geithner Bad Bank Alternative May Rely on Loans to Hedge Funds

By James Sterngold

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s financial-rescue plan may be doomed if he doesn’t offer low-cost loans to hedge funds and other investors to help them buy toxic assets weighing down bank balance sheets.

Creating a so-called bad bank or aggregator bank that would use federal funds to acquire and warehouse the assets, as some have proposed, would be costly for taxpayers and require too much government interference, say two experts on distressed securities who have pitched an alternative plan to officials.

John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York, and Matt Chasin, chief operating officer of Sorin Capital Management LLC, a Stamford, Connecticut-based hedge fund that manages about $1 billion, say the Treasury Department should provide loans at commercial rates to investors for up to 50 percent of the purchase price of securities. The financing would be for as long as the maturities of the assets being acquired.

“One of the problems the banks have been facing is that the markets have forced artificially low prices on these assets because there’s not enough financing available for buyers,” said Ryding, 51, a former Federal Reserve economist who advises hedge funds. “There’s a lot of capital looking for distressed assets, if hedge funds can get good financing.”

Geithner sketched out a rescue plan on Feb. 10 that was short on specifics. It called for a “public-private financing component,” with up to $1 trillion, that would enable financial institutions “to cleanse their balance sheets of what are often referred to as ‘legacy’ assets.” He said it “could involve putting public or private capital side-by-side and using public financing to leverage private capital.”

Aggregator Bank

Treasury officials said in background briefings that the plan would include some kind of government financing for private purchases of toxic assets, mostly mortgage-backed securities. Details are still being worked out, they said.

Ryding, who was chief U.S. economist at Bear Stearns Cos. until last June, when JPMorgan Chase & Co. acquired the failed securities firm, first offered his plan in a Sept. 30 investor note. His proposal, which he says was presented to Treasury and Fed officials last fall, would limit taxpayer losses, allow the market to determine prices for troubled securities and restart trading in the assets.

Realistic pricing set by the markets would unlock a freer flow of capital, Ryding and Chasin say, and avoid claims that the government is subsidizing either the banks, if prices are set too high, or the purchasers, if they are set too low.

Spokesmen at the Fed and Treasury declined to comment on the plan.

TATL, TALF

“Lack of financing is a huge problem for the market,” said Laurie Goodman, a senior managing director at Austin, Texas-based Amherst Securities Group LP and a former head of mortgage research at UBS AG. “Extending the lending facility would raise the value of the mortgage assets, as the yield required by the marginal buyer, a hedge fund, would be lower.”

Ryding and Chasin, who also worked at Bear Stearns, call their fund a Troubled Asset Term Lending facility, or TATL. It would be similar to one developed by Treasury last year, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF. That fund is scheduled to begin operating in early March and will provide as much as $1 trillion of financing for buyers of new securities backed by credit card, auto and small-business loans.

The TATL fund would provide financing for so-called legacy assets, such as mortgage-backed and other collateralized securities that are declining in value and corroding bank balance sheets.

‘Increasing Liquidity’

Under the plan, the government would charge rates similar to those for commercial loans before the credit crisis, about 125 basis points over the London Interbank Offered Rate. The financing would be for as long as the maturities of the securities acquired, and it would cover a maximum of half the purchase price.

That would make it more likely, Ryding and Chasin say, that the government would recover the full value of the loan in the event of a default. In that case, the U.S. could seize the securities provided as collateral and would only lose money if the value of the asset fell more than 50 percent below the purchase price.

“This is potentially a way of increasing liquidity, and if you could do that it may get you to a place where you can start making new securitizations,” which would allow increased lending, said Lee Cotton, an investor and former president of the New York-based Commercial Mortgage Securities Association.

Price vs. Leverage

Some hedge fund managers expressed skepticism. Eric Banks, a partner at New York-based Tolis Advisors LP, which invests in distressed securities, said the real problem is that many banks are unwilling to sell toxic assets at depressed prices and take additional writedowns.

“Although government loans could improve secondary market participation and liquidity, legacy distressed assets owned by banks have been offered with seller financing included, yet only sporadic transactions occurred,” Banks said. “The primary cause of the ongoing stalemate seems to be price rather than leverage.”

Ryding and Chasin agree that, even if the plan works, it will force banks to absorb additional losses, which might require more taxpayer money.

“At the end of the day, this will not relieve banks of their capital-inadequacy problems,” said Chasin. “The government is probably going to have to fill that hole.”

To contact the reporter on this story: James Sterngold in Los Angeles at jsterngold2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 23, 2009 00:01 EST

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